Ovi's Top 25: Preseason Predictions vs. Week 10 Reality

All 4 Downs | The Real Talk Playbook

College Football 2026 | Week 10

The Rankings Don't Lie, but They Tell a Different Story

When I released my preseason Top 25 college football rankings, I had a vision of which programs would dominate the season. I looked at tradition, coaching, talent, and the expectations surrounding each team. But college football has a way of reminding us that preseason expectations mean absolutely nothing once the games begin.

Now, heading into Week 10, my rankings look dramatically different.

Georgia remains my No. 1 team, but Utah has climbed from No. 24 to No. 2. Miami has moved into the Top 3, Kentucky has emerged as a serious contender, and Texas Tech has made an impressive jump into the Top 5.

Meanwhile, traditional powers such as Oregon, Oklahoma, Florida State, and Michigan have disappeared from my rankings entirely.

The biggest surprise? Only 15 of my original preseason Top 25 teams remain ranked.

That means 40% of my preseason selections have been replaced.

Let's break it down.

1st Down: Georgia Remains King, but Utah Is Knocking on the Door

Georgia was my preseason No. 1 team, and after nine weeks of college football, the Bulldogs remain at the top with a 7-1 record.

Some fans may question how a one-loss Georgia team deserves the top position over undefeated Utah and Miami. My philosophy has always been that rankings should not depend solely on wins and losses. I consider the quality of opponents, strength of schedule, performance, and how a team responds to adversity.

But let's talk about Utah.

I had the Utes ranked No. 24 entering the season. Now they are sitting at No. 2 with an undefeated 8-0 record.

That's a remarkable 22-position improvement.

Utah has gone from a team I expected to compete for recognition to one that belongs in the national championship conversation.

Miami is another program making a statement. The Hurricanes started at No. 7 and have climbed to No. 3 with an 8-0 record.

Here is my question: How much longer can Georgia remain No. 1 if Utah and Miami continue winning?

Georgia may still have my confidence, but the Bulldogs cannot afford to stumble again.

2nd Down: Kentucky and Texas Tech Are Changing the Conversation

Perhaps one of the biggest surprises in my rankings is Kentucky.

The Wildcats were nowhere to be found in my preseason Top 25. Now they are ranked No. 4 with a 7-1 record.

That is not something many people would have predicted before the season.

Kentucky has earned recognition, and its rise is a reminder that college football should never be judged strictly by the reputation of a program.

Then there is Texas Tech.

I originally ranked the Red Raiders No. 17. Now they sit at No. 5 with a 7-1 record, improving 12 positions.

Texas Tech has moved from being a team worth watching to a program that deserves serious consideration among the nation's best.

And we cannot overlook UCLA.

The Bruins were unranked in my preseason poll and now sit at No. 10 with a perfect 8-0 record.

These three programs are proof that preseason rankings are predictions, not guarantees.

My takeaway: Kentucky, Texas Tech, and UCLA have earned their positions through their records and performance, not simply because of their conference affiliation or historical reputation.

3rd Down: Traditional Powerhouses Are Losing Ground

This is where my rankings become interesting.

Ohio State entered the season ranked No. 2. Now the Buckeyes sit at No. 6 with a 6-2 record.

Alabama started at No. 5 and has slipped to No. 7, also at 6-2.

Notre Dame moved from No. 6 to No. 8 despite its 7-1 record.

These programs remain in my Top 10, but they are no longer sitting comfortably near the top.

And then there is Texas.

The Longhorns entered my preseason rankings at No. 4. Now they are No. 19 with a 6-2 record.

That is a 15-position fall.

Texas represents one of my biggest preseason disappointments. I expected the Longhorns to be competing among the nation's elite. Instead, they have spent much of the season trying to prove they belong in that conversation.

But Texas is not alone.

Look at some of the teams I originally believed would be major contenders:

Oregon 
Oklahoma 
Florida State 
Florida 
Michigan 
Texas A&M 
Auburn 
Penn State 

That is a significant shake-up.

Oregon's disappearance is particularly surprising because I had the Ducks ranked No. 3 entering the season.

However, I want to make one thing clear: Being unranked does not automatically mean a team is terrible. It means that, based on my evaluation, 25 other programs deserve recognition ahead of them.

Reputation may get a team noticed in August, but it should not protect that team in October.

4th Down: The Rise of the Overlooked Programs

One of the most exciting developments in my Week 10 rankings is the number of programs that were not part of my original Top 25.

Ten teams have entered the rankings:

• Kentucky (No. 4)

• UCLA (No. 10)

• Wake Forest (No. 11)

• Houston (No. 15)

• Iowa (No. 16)

• Boise State (No. 17)

• UTSA (No. 22)

• Liberty (No. 23)

• Louisville (No. 24)

• SMU (No. 25)

I especially want to recognize Boise State, UTSA, and Liberty.

Boise State sits at 7-1, UTSA is 7-1, and Liberty is also 7-1.

These programs deserve attention.

Too often, college football conversations revolve around the same handful of major programs. We hear about Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, Texas, and Notre Dame.

But what about teams that continue winning outside that spotlight?

My rankings are not designed to reward a school's brand name. They are designed to recognize teams that have earned respect on the football field.

A team should not automatically receive a higher ranking simply because its conference has a bigger television contract or its stadium holds more fans.

Winning matters. Competition matters. Performance matters.

And these programs deserve a seat at the table.

The Biggest Climbers and Fallers

The biggest winner among returning teams is clearly Utah.

The biggest loser among teams still ranked is Texas.

But I am also watching BYU and Indiana.

BYU has climbed ten spots, from No. 23 to No. 13, while Indiana has improved seven positions, from No. 19 to No. 12.

Both teams have earned respect, but neither has convinced me that it belongs in my Top 10 just yet.

There is a difference between having an impressive record and demonstrating that you are one of the ten best teams in the country.

That is the standard I continue to apply.

My Ranking Philosophy: Earn It Every Saturday

When I look back at my preseason rankings, I see predictions based on expectations.

When I look at Week 10, I see a season beginning to separate contenders from pretenders.

Some of my preseason predictions have held up. Georgia remains No. 1. Miami has moved closer to the top. Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and LSU remain among the nation's highest-ranked programs.

Others have not worked out.

And that is perfectly fine.

I am not going to keep Oregon ranked simply because I placed the Ducks at No. 3 in August.

I am not going to protect Texas because the Longhorns were my preseason No. 4.

And I am certainly not going to ignore Utah, Kentucky, Texas Tech, or UCLA because I underestimated them before the season began.

A ranking should reflect what a team has earned, not what someone predicted it would accomplish.

That is why I am willing to move teams dramatically when their performances justify it.

Final Whistle: Who Will Survive the Next Four Weeks?

As we approach the final stretch of the regular season, my Top 25 presents several interesting questions.

Can Georgia maintain the No. 1 position with one loss while Utah and Miami remain undefeated?

Will Kentucky prove that its rise into the Top 4 is sustainable?

Can Texas Tech continue its climb toward the national championship conversation?

Will Ohio State and Alabama recover enough ground to challenge the teams above them?

And perhaps the biggest question: Will another overlooked program force its way into my Top 10 before the season ends?

There is still plenty of football left to play.

My preseason rankings told everyone what I thought would happen.

My Week 10 rankings tell everyone what I believe the teams have earned.

And by the time the regular season ends, we may discover that the biggest story of 2026 is not which traditional powerhouse wins the championship, but which unexpected contender refuses to go away.

This is college football. Nothing is guaranteed, and every Saturday offers another opportunity to prove the doubters wrong.

The rankings are mine. The debate belongs to everyone.

Ovi's Top 25 | All 4 Downs

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